(click on the pic to get to the
link)
par Pancho Villa
publié dans :
Stephen Roach
par Pancho Villa
publié dans :
Stephen Roach
(cliquez sur l'image pour lire l'article 'China's pace, Amrica's Angst')
(*) Cliquez ici pour avoir une traduction
Update en relation avec le billet: (a cogiter...un peu...)
La Chine ne serait-elle pas en train de suivre les memes pas
que la dynastie...
?
par Pancho Villa
publié dans :
Stephen Roach
'...Billed as the great equalizer between the rich and the poor, globalization has been anything but. An increasingly integrated global economy is facing the strains of widening income disparities -- within countries and across countries. This has given rise to a new and rapidly expanding underclass that is redefining the political landscape. The growing risks of protectionism are an outgrowth of this ominous trend. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Globalization has long been portrayed as the rising tide that lifts all boats. The surprise is in the tide -- a rapid surge of IT-enabled connectivity that has pushed the global labor arbitrage quickly up the value chain. Only the elite at the upper end of the occupational hierarchy have been spared the pressures of an increasingly brutal wage compression. The rich are, indeed, getting richer but the rest of the workforce is not. This spells mounting disparities in the income distribution -- for developed and developing countries, alike. ...' |
par Pancho Villa
publié dans :
Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach de chez Morgan-Stanley:
'...A year ago, the macro debate was dominated by concerns over mounting global imbalances. Our 2005 outlook piece, modestly entitled “How to Fix the World,” probed in great detail the coming rebalancing of a lopsided world economy. The passage of time has not treated this outcome kindly. Global imbalances have continued to mount, but few seem to care these days. I suspect that 2006 will be a year when that ambivalence is shattered. ...' |
Clair, Simple, Bien. Vas-y, vas-y Stephen, vas-y!
A lire aussi:
"That’s especially the case when we peer into our scratched and cracked crystal balls and stretch the forecast horizon out for another year. "
- 1.Global rebalancing. In my view, this remains the key risk for a still unbalanced world.
- 2.China slowdown. After years of skepticism, the world now treats China as a perma-growth story, capable of 9%-plus GDP growth in perpetuity.(Bon, faut pas oublier: "C'est quoi le point commun entre 'Statistique et Plastique? Le 'Stique'" , Ha, ha, bon elle était nulle, mais passons...)
- 3.American consumer. The consumer has been the mainstay of a decade of US-centric global growth, and the consensus now believes that US consumption is impervious to external shocks.
- 4.The dollar. A year ago, the dollar bears were strutting; now it’s the new-paradigm dollar bulls.
- 5.Central bank credibility. Central banks turned out to be great inflation fighters, but their success in reaching the hallowed ground of price stability is far more dubious.
Bon, bref P.-V. voudrait remercier Stephen Roach pour ses articles parus pendant toute l'année qui ont été lucides , clairs, (à mon avis objectifs, bon l'objectivité individuelle est toujours subjective ...., laissons cette question aux 'philosophes') et très intéressants.... |
par Pancho Villa
publié dans :
Stephen Roach
