Vendredi 30 décembre 2005
5
30
/12
/2005
14:30
Stephen Roach de chez
Morgan-Stanley:
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"...A year ago, the macro debate was dominated by concerns over mounting global imbalances. Our 2005
outlook piece, modestly entitled “How to Fix the World,” probed in great detail the coming rebalancing of a lopsided world economy. The passage of time has not treated this outcome
kindly. Global imbalances have continued to mount, but few seem to care these days. I suspect that 2006 will be a year when that ambivalence is shattered. ..."
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P.S.: Clair, Simple, Bien. Vas-y, vas-y Stephen, vas-y!
A lire aussi:
"That’s especially the case when we peer into our scratched and cracked crystal balls and stretch the forecast horizon out for another year. "
- 1.Global rebalancing. In my view, this remains the key risk for a still unbalanced world.
- 2.China slowdown. After years of skepticism, the world now treats China as a perma-growth story, capable of 9%-plus GDP growth in perpetuity.(Bon, faut pas oublier: "C'est quoi le point commun entre 'Statistique et Plastique? Le 'Stique'" , Ha, ha, bon elle était nulle, mais passons...)
- 3.American consumer. The consumer has been the mainstay of a decade of US-centric global growth, and the consensus now believes that US consumption is impervious to external shocks.
- 4.The dollar. A year ago, the dollar bears were strutting; now it’s the new-paradigm dollar bulls.
- 5.Central bank credibility. Central banks turned out to be great inflation fighters, but their success in reaching the hallowed ground of price stability is far more dubious.
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Bon, bref P.-V. voudrait remercier Stephen Roach pour ses articles parus pendant
toute l'année qui ont été lucides , clairs, (à mon avis objectifs, bon l'objectivité individuelle est toujours subjective ...., laissons cette question aux
'philosophes') et très intéressants....
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Par Pancho Villa
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Publié dans : Stephen Roach
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