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21 septembre 2006 4 21 /09 /septembre /2006 15:39
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16 septembre 2006 6 16 /09 /septembre /2006 15:35


Can the IMF Avert a Global Meltdown?
Kenneth Rogoff


When world financial leaders meet in Singapore this month for the joint World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings, they must confront one singularly important question. Is there any way to coax the IMF’s largest members, especially the United States and China, to help diffuse the risks posed by the world’s massive trade imbalances?

This year, the US will borrow roughly $800 billion to finance its trade deficit. Incredibly, the US is now soaking up roughly two-thirds of all global net saving, a situation without historical precedent.

While this borrowing binge might end smoothly, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has speculated, most world financial leaders are rightly worried about a more precipitous realignment that would likely set off a massive dollar depreciation and possibly much worse. Indeed, if policymakers continue to sit on their hands, it is not hard to imagine a sharp global slowdown or even a devastating financial crisis.

Although Bernanke is right to view a soft landing as the most likely outcome, common sense would suggest agreing on some prophylactic measures, even if this means that the US, China, and other large contributors to the global imbalances have to swallow some bitter medicine. Unfortunately, getting politicians in the big countries to focus on anything but their own domestic imperatives is far from easy.

Though the comparison is unfair, it is hard not to recall the old quip about the IMF’s relative, the United Nations: “When there is a dispute between two small nations, the UN steps in and the dispute disappears. When there is a dispute between a small nation and a large nation, the UN steps in and the small nation disappears. When there is a dispute between two large nations, the UN disappears.”

Fortunately, the IMF is not yet in hiding, even if some big players really don’t like what it has to say. The IMF’s head, the Spaniard Rodrigo Rato, rightly insists that China, the US, Japan, Europe, and the major oil exporters (now the world’s biggest source of new capital) all take concrete steps towards alleviating the risk of a crisis.

Though the exact details remain to be decided, such steps might include more exchange-rate flexibility in China, and perhaps a promise from the US to show greater commitment to fiscal restraint. Oil exporters could, in turn, promise to increase domestic consumption expenditure, which would boost imports.

Likewise, post-deflation Japan could promise never again to resort to massive intervention to stop its currency from appreciating. Europe, for its part, could agree not to shoot its recovery in the foot with ill-timed new taxes such as those that Germany is currently contemplating.

Will the IMF be successful in brokering a deal? The recent catastrophic collapse of global trade talks is not an encouraging harbinger. Europe, Japan, and (to a much lesser extent) the US, were simply unwilling to face down their small but influential farm lobbies. The tragic result is that some of the world’s poorest countries cannot export their agricultural goods, one of the few areas where they might realistically compete with the likes of China and India.

Fortunately for Rato, addressing the global imbalances can be a win-win situation. The same proposed policies for closing global trade imbalances also, by and large, help address each country’s domestic economic concerns.

For example, China needs a stronger exchange rate to help curb manic investment in its export sector, and thereby reduce the odds of a 1990’s style collapse. As for the US, a sharp hike in energy taxes on gasoline and other fossil fuels would not only help improve the government’s balance sheet, but it would also be a way to start addressing global warming. What better way for new US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, a card-carrying environmentalist, to make a dramatic entrance onto the world policy stage?

Similarly, the technocrats at the Bank of Japan surely realize that they could manage the economy far more effectively if they swore off anachronistic exchange-rate intervention techniques and switched whole-heartedly to modern interest-rate targeting rules such as those used by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

With Europe in a cyclical upswing, tax revenues should start rising even without higher tax rates, so why risk strangling the continent’s nascent recovery in the cradle? Saudi Arabia, with its burgeoning oil revenues, could use a big deal to reinforce the country’s image as a major anchor of global financial stability.

If today’s epic US borrowing does end in tears, and if world leaders fail to help the IMF get the job done, history will not treat them kindly. Instead, they will be blamed for not seeing an impending catastrophe that was staring them in the face. Let’s hope that on this occasion in international diplomacy, the only thing that disappears are the massive global trade imbalances, and not the leaders and institutions that are supposed to deal with them.


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4 septembre 2006 1 04 /09 /septembre /2006 17:04


Can the IMF avert a global meltdown?

Ken Rogoff




When world financial leaders convene in Singapore on Sept 18 for the joint World Bank/International Monetary Fund meetings, they must confront one singularly important question. Is there any way to coax the IMF's largest members, especially the United States and China, to help reduce the risks posed by the world's massive trade imbalances? ... Incredibly, the US is now soaking up roughly two-thirds of all global net saving, a situation without historical precedent.

While this borrowing binge might end smoothly, ... most world financial leaders are rightly worried... Indeed, if policymakers continue to sit on their hands, it is not hard to imagine a sharp global slowdown or even a devastating financial crisis. ...

Though the comparison is unfair, it is hard not to recall the old quip about the IMF's relative, the United Nations: When there is a dispute between two small nations, the UN steps in and the dispute disappears. When there is a dispute between a small nation and a large nation, the UN steps in and the small nation disappears. When there is a dispute between two large nations, the UN disappears.

Fortunately, the IMF is not yet in hiding, even if some big players really don't like what it has to say. The IMF's head, Rodrigo Rato of Spain, rightly insists that China, the US, Japan, Europe and the major oil exporters (now the world's biggest source of new capital) all take concrete steps towards alleviating the risk of a crisis. ...

[S]uch steps might include more exchange-rate flexibility in China, and ... a promise from the US to show greater commitment to fiscal restraint. Oil exporters could, in turn, promise to increase domestic consumption expenditure, which would boost imports.

Likewise, post-deflation Japan could promise never again to resort to massive intervention to stop its currency from appreciating. Europe, for its part, could agree not to shoot its recovery in the foot with ill-timed new taxes such as those that Germany is currently contemplating.

Will the IMF be successful in brokering a deal? The recent catastrophic collapse of global trade talks is not an encouraging harbinger. ... Fortunately for Mr Rato, addressing the global imbalances can be a win-win situation. The same proposed policies for closing global trade imbalances also, by and large, help address each country's domestic economic concerns.

For example, China needs a stronger exchange rate to help curb manic investment in its export sector, and thereby reduce the odds of a 1990s-style collapse. As for the US, a sharp hike in energy taxes on gasoline and other fossil fuels would not only help improve the government's balance sheet, but it would also be a way to start addressing global warming. What better way for new US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, a card-carrying environmentalist, to make a dramatic entrance onto the world policy stage? ...

If today's epic US borrowing does end in tears _ and if world leaders fail to help the IMF get the job done _ history will not treat them kindly. Instead, they will be blamed for not seeing an impending catastrophe that was staring them in the face.

Let's hope that on this occasion in international diplomacy, the only thing that disappears are the massive global trade imbalances, and not the leaders and institutions that are supposed to deal with them.


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30 août 2006 3 30 /08 /août /2006 01:34



The myth of central banks and inflation
By Kenneth Rogoff


Central banks’ near universal success in bringing down inflation over the past two decades has led many policymakers to conclude that they have pretty much solved the problem of high inflation, once and for all. Market participants have bought into this story, as evinced by a host of quantitative and survey measures. Outside a few developing countries, nobody seems to worry much about a sustained bout of 5 per cent or 6 per cent inflation, much less the double-digit levels of the 1970s. But have central bankers truly slain the hydra of inflation?

The advent of modern independent and anti-inflation-oriented central banks is one of the great success stories of modern economic science. But this story has been exaggerated. We should consider the possibility that the unprecedented pace of modern globalisation, recently emphasised by Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, might also have played a role. If so, what will happen if the winds of globalisation ever reverse course?

Why should globalisation matter for inflation? A very popular but wrong-headed view is that “China exports deflation”, so that more rapid growth in China automatically translates into lower inflation everywhere. This is nonsense. As long as a central bank has monopoly control over its currency, as most do, it can set medium and longer term inflation trends at any level it likes. If the central bank really wants to stabilise the country’s overall inflation rate, it will respond to lower import prices by allowing an offsetting rise in the prices of domestic goods. In this sense, it would be more accurate to say that China exports inflation rather than deflation.

Instead, one should think of the modern era of rapidly expanding trade and technology progress as providing a spectacularly favourable milieu for monetary policy. With hugely positive underlying trends, central banks have been able to establish and maintain low inflation while delivering growth results that have often outperformed expectations. Rather than face the usual historical trade-off, central banks have let citizens have their cake and eat it. No wonder central bankers have become so popular.

But precisely because globalisation has produced such a steady stream of upward surprises, there is an element of illusion to central banks’ success, as most people have only sluggishly adjusted their expectations to the faster growth trends. Consider the ­performance of Alan Greenspan, the recently retired Fed chairman. Mr Greenspan famously got a number of big calls right, including his early ­recognition of the productivity boom in the 1990s, as well as his aggressive proactive responses to the tragedy of September 11 2001, the 1998 Russian debt crisis and the 1987 stock market crash. In each of these cases, Mr Greenspan’s big call was to slash interest rates and pour liquidity into the system, leading markets to believe that the Fed would always insure the downside of the economy without taking away any of the upside.

But life cannot always be this good for a central bank. If big Fed interest rate surprises are always cuts, markets will eventually catch on, ratcheting up inflationary expectations. Economists Milton Friedman and Ned Phelps elegantly illustrated this point way back in the 1960s. So how was Mr Greenspan able to pull off his long sequence of one-way surprises? Because he did it in an era when continuing upside surprises to underlying growth helped absorb liquidity.

Although not every country has benefited from globalisation as much as the US has, the dynamic has tended to be similar. For example, most of the rich countries have seen spectacular terms-of-trade gains; that is, a fall in the price of imports relative to exports. (Italy and Japan are possible exceptions, as both countries had export niches that were particularly vulnerable to the rise of China and the rest of emerging Asia.) Even in the developing world, which did not necessarily enjoy the same terms-of-trade gains, the move to more market-based economies has brought such efficiency gains that they have still experienced a sharp increase in trend growth. No wonder that central bankers, who are often given credit or blame for long-term growth trends over which they have little impact, have become such big rock stars. What more can one ask for than low inflation and high growth?

There are other more subtle and long-lasting impacts of globalisation on inflation.* These include the impact of greater competition, as well as greater wage and price flexibility, all of which operate to make central banks’ commitment to low inflation more credible. But the main story of consistently high underlying real growth explains, more than anything, why globalisation has helped central banks so much. Central bankers deserve credit for taking advantage of these good times to establish and enhance their credibility. I also admit to underplaying the role that better central bank policy has played in creating greater macro­economic certainty, thereby directly enhancing growth. But central bankers did not create the computer chip, nor did they liberalise China.

So the question is: what happens if the winds of globalisation turn? What if a combination of economic and political problems leads to a sharp slowdown in China? What if security checks in the wake of a terrorist attack lead to a sustained pause in the expansion of global trade? What if a slowdown in trend growth exacerbates the fiscal problems that most countries are already going to face as their populations age? Or, more immediately, what if there is a disorderly unwinding of the oversized US current account deficit? Having built up public expectations about their ability to deliver high growth and low inflation simultaneously, central bankers might have a hard time explaining what went wrong.

Perhaps central banks will get lucky and not have to face any severe problems for another couple of decades but, unfortunately, that is not likely. Thus, there is some urgency in the need for central banks to take greater pains to avoid taking too much credit for upside performance.

Already today, central banks face steeply higher oil prices combined with a pause in falling import prices from developing Asia. But the current conjuncture is just a small test compared with what might happen if globalisation hits a really large bump in the road. Then, at least in a few big countries, inflation will end up being far higher than policymakers or market participants now seem to think possible. Market convictions that inflation is forever dead will be shattered.



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9 août 2006 3 09 /08 /août /2006 15:34


Big, fat American shopper to the rescue

by Kenneth Rogoff


It is appalling that the world has decided to blame the United States for the crushing end to five years of global trade talks last month (the so-called Doha Round). I am the first to admit that the U.S. under President George W. Bush has not covered itself with multilateral glory in recent years. But accuse America of sabotaging the trade talks? Give me a break.

Has anybody noticed that for more than a decade now, U.S. imports have been averaging several hundred billion dollars more than exports? Do people seriously believe that the U.S. has accomplished its majestic trade deficit by shutting its doors to foreign goods? On the contrary, through its low tariffs and general lack of import restrictions, ... Americans buy more foreign-made refrigerators, cars, clothing, computers -- you name it -- than anyone else.

Happily for world exporters, the same binge mentality that makes a whopping two-thirds of Americans either overweight or obese seems to extend to all their purchasing habits. Since the start of this decade, neither recession nor hurricanes nor sky-high oil prices have seemed to dent their appetites.

The simple fact is that even if [the] U.S. ... had refused to make a single "concession," and if Europe, Japan and the big emerging markets had kept their best offers on the table, the U.S. would still remain more open than all but a few small countries.

True, in the endgame of the talks, the U.S. caved in to its wealthy and powerful agribusiness lobby. But that was only after five years of intransigence by Europe's even more powerful farm lobbies. And this is not to mention emerging market politicians' failure to grasp that unilaterally reducing their excessive import restrictions would be a good idea even if rich countries sat on their hands.

What does last month's trade fiasco mean? ... The ... Democratic Party seems poised to take up growing wage inequality as an issue in this year's midterm U.S. congressional elections and in the 2008 presidential election. ...

The last thing that Bush's Republicans want is to appear indifferent to the plight of the middle classes. So, unfortunately, even if Europe came to its senses and emerging markets showed greater enthusiasm for liberal trade, we may not see a big global deal until the next decade.

How bad would that be? After all, many Asian countries have achieved impressive export-led growth under the current system. And bilateral or regional trade deals can chip away at some of the barriers in the current global system. ...

Even if Asia has succeeded by relentlessly exporting manufactured items, today's poorest countries, especially in Africa, can realistically export only agriculture and textiles ... precisely the range of goods that remain most protected under existing agreements. Bilateral deals can help, but they can also lead to higher trade barriers for everyone else. ...

[G]lobal economic growth in the past four years has been the fastest since the early 1970s. Rapidly expanding global trade, combined with an ever-freer and faster exchange of people and ideas, has been a cornerstone of this growth, particularly of the strong productivity gains that underlie it. Absent further trade agreements, there is a big risk that the pace of globalization will slow, with profound consequences for global poverty and welfare.

Outside Africa, the people who will suffer the most are those in countries like Brazil, India, China and Mexico, whose leaders rightly took on rich-country farm subsidies, but wrongly failed to recognize the profound costs of the developing world's own import restrictions.

So for now, the world must hope that Americans continue gorging on foreign imports. Wallis Simpson, the controversial U.S.-born Duchess of Windsor, once famously quipped, "You can never be too rich or too thin."

Fortunately for everyone, America's motto nowadays is "You can never be too rich or too fat." When Americans finally decide to go on an import diet, as they will someday, the world's hypocrisy over the failed global trade talks will become apparent to all.


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20 juillet 2006 4 20 /07 /juillet /2006 19:45


G-8 Movie Night

Kenneth Rogoff


Many people rightly regard the annual G-8 (Group of Eight) presidential summit as the closest thing we have to a functioning world government. So it is a shame that these meetings tend to be so scripted and dull, with so little room for the informality needed to make genuine progress on tough issues involving world peace and prosperity.

True, this year is a bit better thanks to having Russia’s Vladimir Putin as host; there is simply too much tension between him and his Western counterparts to keep all emotions under wraps. But if these meetings are ever to be really effective, we need a change in format to spice things up. I have a suggestion. Why not have George W. Bush, Putin, and the other leaders share a G-8 movie night, and then discuss their reactions over drinks afterwards? That should get a conversation going!

Of course, there is the question of which movie to pick. This year, the clear first choice has to be the 1963 James Bond spy thriller “From Russia with Love.” The name itself makes it a winner, and the presidents can enjoy watching the fireworks between suave British spy Bond (Sean Connery) and his fetching Russian KGB counterpart Tatiana (Daniela Bianchi). In case you are worried that the Bond-Tatiana affair would spark too many off-color remarks from the collective eminences, the presence of German Chancellor Angela Merkel should keep things under control.

Perhaps after a couple drinks, Putin might spill the beans on whether, as a real-world KGB agent, he ever directed any remotely similar operation. And Bush, while of course having no such experience of his own, could retell some of his father’s stories when he was the head of the CIA in the 1970’s. Not to be left out, Europeans could use the film’s romantic shots of Istanbul to open up about whether Turkey will ever join their club.

There are countless other possibilities. It would be a bit awkward, but the esteemed guests could also view “An Inconvenient Truth,” narrated by Al Gore, the man Bush narrowly defeated in the 2000 US presidential election. Gore’s deeply earnest film plots the relentless, and potentially disastrous, warming of the earth during the industrial era. He attributes, debatably, the entire problem to higher carbon emissions from cars, power plants, etc.

Gore’s film would give the Europeans, always in danger of being marginalized at these meetings, the chance to boast about how they, unlike the Americans and Russians, are already doing their part by heavily taxing gas consumption. Bush’s reaction is less predictable.

On the one hand, his new star Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, has long been deeply committed to environmental causes. Paulson’s appointment presumably shows that Bush is far more concerned about environmental issues than is commonly believed. But, on the other hand, some of Bush’s more intemperate Republican colleagues might have told him that global warming will lift ocean levels to the point where many of the coastal “blue” states, which tend to vote for the opposition Democrats, will be washed away, leaving only “red” Republican states in the center of the country.

Putin’s position on global warming would be less ambivalent. With his country so totally – indeed, embarrassingly – dependent on oil and gas revenues, he is hardly likely to want to spark a big push towards energy conservation.

One could go on forever with possible films, but clearly G-8 movie night might rekindle life in the organization’s moribund framework, and keep it going for many years to come. And there are so many other advantages.

Consider the dubious results from the G-8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, in 2005. Desperate to capture some of the star power of the rock star-driven campaign to reduce poor countries’ debt, the leaders agreed to forgive Third World debt that no one ever expected to be repaid. Rather than making really substantive improvements in the quantity and quality of aid delivery, not to mention finding a path towards better governance in Africa, they chose a desperate plea for photo ops with Bono and Angelina Jolie.

With a movie night, there would be a ready-made excuse for inviting glitterati to attend G-8 events to help spark discussions. Don’t we all want to know how Bond (oops, I mean Sean Connery) would deal with Iran or North Korea?

To be sure, there could be glitches. What if Russia were to inadvertently use a copy of the film that was pirated, as one imagines is true of most copies floating around in Russia? That would hardly look good given all the bashing China takes for not enforcing intellectual property rights more vigorously. Or what if, after a few years, the whole thing devolves into an empty exercise in political correctness?

Still, I say let’s give G-8 movie night a chance. It would certainly be more entertaining that the current framework, and, who knows, it might even inspire better policy.



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19 mai 2006 5 19 /05 /mai /2006 17:21









Marre de Wal-Mart ?

Kenneth Rogoff



Voulez-vous savoir quel vidéo-clip fera bientôt trembler les décideurs du monde entier ? L'économiste Thomas Holmes, suivant un scénario qui ressemble de façon troublante à la diffusion d'une épidémie mondiale, a préparé une simulation cartographique dynamique montrant l'expansion des magasins Wal-Mart aux États-Unis. En commençant par l'épicentre à Bentonville, dans l'Arkansas, où Sam Walton ouvrit son premier magasin en 1962, les big-box stores [magasins-boîtes] géants Wal-Mart se sont maintenant multipliés au point que l'Américain moyen vit désormais à moins de sept kilomètres d'une de ces boutiques.

Il est intéressant de noter que les magasins évoluent à la manière des pétales d'une fleur qui s'épaississent et s'étendent. Plutôt que de sauter directement jusqu'aux côtes, puisque 80% des Américains vivent dans un rayon de 80 km de l'Atlantique ou du Pacifique, Wal-Mart s'est étendu de façon organique par le biais d'une chaîne de fournisseurs en constante expansion. Même si chaque nouvelle boutique vole une partie de la clientèle des magasins Wal-Mart établis dans les environs, l'efficacité des approvisionnements en constante amélioration contribue à maintenir la croissance globale de la chaîne.

Qu'on l'adore ou qu'on le déteste, Wal-Mart est indéniablement l'exemple parfait des coûts et des bénéfices de la mondialisation moderne. Les consommateurs y dépensent considérablement moins que dans des magasins traditionnels. Par exemple, les économistes considèrent que l'alimentation chez Wal-Mart coûte 25% moins cher que dans une chaîne de supermarchés ordinaire. La différence de prix pour de nombreux autres produits de consommation est encore plus grande.

Voyez l'étonnant fait suivant : avec quelques autres magasins du même style : Target, Best Buy et Home Depot, Wal-Mart compte pour environ 50% de la hausse de productivité tant vantée de l'Amérique par rapport à l'Europe au cours des dix dernières années. Cinquante pour cent ! Et le même genre d'avancées parmi les chaînes de grossistes compte pour 25% supplémentaires ! L'idée que les Américains sont devenus meilleurs en tout pendant que les autres pays riches stagnaient est donc très erronée. Le miracle de la productivité américaine et l'émergence du commerce de style Wal-Mart sont pratiquement synonymes.

Je n'ai rien contre ces grands hypermarchés. Ils sont une aubaine pour les consommateurs à bas revenus, et compensent en partie la croissance tiède des salaires dont beaucoup d'entre eux ont pâti au cours des deux dernières décennies. Et je ne suis pas d'accord avec certains de mes amis qui snobent les magasins Wal-Mart et prétendent n'y avoir jamais mis les pieds. En tant que consommateur, j'adore les big-box stores. C'est aussi certainement le cas des partenaires commerciaux de l'Amérique ; Wal-Mart à lui seul compte pour plus de 10% de toutes les importations américaines depuis la Chine.

Mais j'émets quand même quelques réserves quant au modèle Wal-Mart utilisé comme schéma directeur de la croissance mondiale. Tout d'abord, il y a la question de son effet sur les travailleurs à bas salaires et sur les détaillants plus petits. Les enquêtes révèlent que, tout en restant dans la légalité, ses politiques sociales exploitent des lacunes de la réglementation qui, par exemple, lui permettent d'échapper au fardeau des frais de santé pour de nombreux employés (Wal-Mart fournit une couverture de santé à moins de la moitié de ses employés). Et l'arrivée de ces hypers dans une communauté écrase les détaillants établis de longue date, et transforment souvent leur personnalité de façon impressionnante.

Oui, jusqu'à un certain point, c'est le prix du progrès. Mais la perte de l'esthétique et de la communauté ne se calcule pas simplement grâce à des statistiques sur les revenus et les prix. Les big-box stores ne sont pas vraiment jolis, d'où leur nom [grosses boîtes]. Si leur croissance explosive se poursuit au cours des 20 prochaines années, les Américains considéreront-ils un jour leur prolifération comme un exemple spectaculaire de l'échec des modèles de croissance équilibrée à l'échelle régionale ?

Certes, beaucoup d'Européens, et d'autres, considèreraient la simulation vidéo de Holmes reproduisant le développement de Wal-Mart comme un film d'horreur. Les Français ont peut-être inventé l'hypermarché, ancêtre du magasin big box, mais ils n'ont jamais eu l'intention de le laisser se développer sans contrôle. La grande question pour les Européens consiste à savoir s'ils peuvent trouver des moyens d'exploiter certains des gains d'efficacité incarnés par le modèle Wal-Mart sans pour autant se laisser dépasser par lui.

Pour les Américains, existe en outre la question de savoir quoi faire lorsque le phénomène des big-box stores s'essoufflera. Si une si grande partie de la productivité américaine se réduit vraiment à laisser Wal-Mart et ses cousins les supermarchés poursuivre leur expansion démente, que se passera-t-il lorsque cette source de croissance s'épuisera ? L'économie américaine dispose de nombreuses autres forces, notamment son système financier supérieur et sa position dominante en biens d'équipement de haute technologie, mais le fait est que l'avantage des États-Unis dans ce secteur n'a pas pour l'instant été aussi frappant que le phénomène Wal-Mart. Il est curieux de voir combien de gens semblent penser que les USA vont connaître une croissance plus rapide que l'Europe et le Japon au cours des dix prochaines années,simplement parce que c'est ce qui s'est passé au cours des dix dernières années.

Wal-Mart et consorts constituent un élément central de notre époque de mondialisation moderne. Ils ne sont pas vraiment l'épidémie que leur schéma explosif de développement laisse apparaître, mais leur émergence n'est pas non plus totalement bénigne. Ceux qui désirent imiter les tendances de la productivité américaine doivent se demander aujourd'hui ce qu'ils penseraient de l'apparition de magasins en forme de boîtes ponctuant leur campagne, tirant les salaires vers le bas et causant la mort des petits détaillants. Les Américains, quant à eux, doivent réfléchir à l'endroit où se situe le juste équilibre entre esthétique, communauté et petits prix.


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26 avril 2006 3 26 /04 /avril /2006 18:49


Commençons les travaux

Kenneth Rogoff


Tout bon banquier spécialisé dans l'investissement international sait que la fin avril est une mauvaise période pour proposer ses services, car c'est l'époque où les ministres des Finances du monde reviennent chez eux après la réunion du FMI à Washington, soucieux à l'idée que les risques courus par l'économie mondiale puissent déborder jusqu'à leurs propres jardins. Les ministres sont trop occupés à se remettre de leur traumatisme pour songer à payer le prix fort pour de nouveaux emprunts internationaux. Qui veut augmenter sa dette alors que la crise financière attend peut-être au coin de la rue ? Mieux vaut continuer d'amasser des bons du trésor américain, même si les retours sont bien moins élevés que pour la plupart des autres investissements.

Mais est-ce vraiment le cas ? Alors que l'économie actuelle se trouve au milieu d'une expansion durable et toujours plus équilibrée, le temps n'est-il pas venu de considérer les risques de hausse ? En particulier, les gouvernements, et surtout ceux qui n'en finissent pas de construire des réserves de dollars, ne devraient-ils pas plutôt commencer à penser à la manière de construire leurs routes, ponts, ports, réseaux électriques et autres infrastructures ? Le temps n'est-il pas venu de commencer à jeter les fondations d'une croissance future, notamment dans les régions les plus pauvres qui attendent encore leur part de la prospérité actuelle ?

Ne vous méprenez pas, je ne suis pas en train de plaider la débauche fiscale. Mais l'équilibre des risques a changé au cours des dernières années. Oui, au cours des trois à cinq prochaines années, il y aura probablement une autre récession mondiale. Et oui, il y aura sans doute une autre poussée de crises financières – peut-être en Europe centrale, qui ressemble aujourd'hui à l'Asie avant sa crise de 1997. Les craintes récentes à propos du déficit commercial béant de l'Islande et du nouveau ministre des Finances brésilien ont secoué le monde entier, rappelant aux investisseurs internationaux que bien que de nombreux marchés émergents passent progressivement au statut d'investisseurs, la plupart n'en sont pas encore là.

Mais il y a les bons et les mauvais risques, et une politique économique solide consiste autant à capitaliser sur les bonnes périodes qu'à éviter les mauvaises. Les gourous économiques de sites comme la Banque mondiale ont développé une liste ridiculement longue d'étapes que les pays se doivent de respecter pour augmenter leurs taux de croissance (le “Consensus de Washington étendu”). Tout comme pour se maintenir en bonne santé, se concentrer sur un seul composant ne suffit pas. Mais s'il y a un domaine dans lequel il existe des opportunités évidentes, et où la politique peut vraiment faire une différence, c'est l'investissement dans les infrastructures.

Les problèmes d'infrastructures de l'Inde sont légendaires, ses aéroports et chemins de fer d'un niveau d'inadaptation comique. Cependant, à part dans quelques pays parmi lesquels la Chine, évidemment, mais aussi l'Espagne (NON!), les faibles dépenses d'infrastructure sont épidémiques.

Même les États-unis disposent d'infrastructures entravées par la négligence, avec ses ponts qui s'écroulent et un réseau électrique dangereusement surchargé. Le Brésil, riche en terre, est aussi un cas d'école en termes de conséquences du sous-investissement. Ses systèmes d'infrastructures sont peut-être appropriés pour soutenir son taux de croissance tiède à 3-4%, mais ils sont insuffisants pour soutenir les taux de 6-7% qu'il devrait connaître au milieu de l'expansion mondiale actuelle. La Russie, malgré les richesses immenses en pétrole et en gaz de la Sibérie, n'investit même pas assez pour soutenir une croissance saine dans ses industries énergétiques, encore moins le développement humain dans les régions pauvres du pays (y compris l'infortunée Sibérie).

Certes, les dépenses des gouvernements pour les infrastructures sont souvent gaspillées. Ma ville natale de Boston a récemment réussi à dépenser l'incroyable somme de 15 milliards de dollars pour rendre quelques autoroutes souterraines. Et ce soi-disant “Big Dig [gros trou]” est un véritable modèle d'efficacité comparé à de nombreux ponts japonais de sinistre réputation qui ne mènent nulle part.

Il existe pourtant des moyens de moins gaspiller. La transparence dans l'achat des équipements fait des merveilles. C'est aussi le cas de l'implication du secteur privé. Le prix Nobel d'économie William Vickrey n'a cessé de plaider en faveur des autoroutes payantes financées par le privé (BOF, vraiment sujet a debat...!). Une supervision privée peut souvent produire une construction meilleure et plus efficace, et en théorie, les autoroutes payantes contribuent à diminuer les embouteillages (ironie du sort, Vickery est mort dans un embouteillage.) Même la Chine, qui a créé plus de 50 000 kilomètres de routes et des dizaines d'aéroports au cours des cinq dernières années, utilise des financements privés.

Certes, les pays qui n'ont pas assaini leur situation fiscale, comme c'est le cas pour l'Inde, ne doivent pas se jeter dans de grands projets gouvernementaux sans prévoir des réformes pour assurer leur durabilité. La prudence fiscale et des taux d'inflation stables sont les pierres angulaires de l'environnement économique relativement sain d'aujourd'hui. Mais pour des pays qui peuvent se permettre d'investir davantage, particulièrement ceux qui détiennent un excès de précieux dollars permettant le développement sous forme de paresseux bons du trésor américains, le moment est sans doute venu de se livrer à une nouvelle estimation de l'équilibre des risques.

Le FMI a tout à fait raison de rappeler aux ministre tous les ans en avril les risques de baisse des cours. Le besoin de nouvelles infrastructures n'est pas une autorisation de jeter la prudence par la fenêtre. Mais lorsque les ministres des Finances du monde se seront remis de leur thérapie de choc d'avril, ils devront aussi considérer les opportunités qui s'offrent à eux.



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20 avril 2006 4 20 /04 /avril /2006 14:03


"Unbridled Capitalism Will Lead to Very Real Problems"



Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff discusses the dangers of unbridled capitalism, the greed of corporate CEOs and a fundamental problem with the United States economy.

Spiegel: Professor Rogoff, the US economy is surging forward, while President Bush celebrates high growth rates. But most Americans believe they are living in a recession. Who is right?

Rogoff: I too have asked myself whether people have gone crazy. But the fact is that the share of wages in total growth is shrinking.

Spiegel: In other words, most people are not benefiting from the recovery and are justifiably disappointed?

Rogoff: The working population's share of national income remained constant for 100 years. That's why Marx's theory that only capitalists benefit from capitalism and workers are exploited was completely wrong. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Workers earned more as economies grew.

Spiegel: Is this no longer true?

Rogoff: There has been a noticeable decline in the labor factor in all wealthy countries in the past 20 years. The rich are getting richer, but those at the lower end aren't moving ahead as quickly as the capitalists.

Spiegel: So Marx was right after all?

Rogoff: We're still a long way away from that. Workers are not being exploited. But if their share of growth doesn't increase, this could be a potential cause of social tension worldwide. The point is that so far attempts to reverse this trend in the US have failed. Boeing employees achieved barely anything by going on strike (editor's note: last autumn). Instead, the workers are now in a weaker position -- both in aviation and in other industries.

Spiegel: Meanwhile, corporate CEOs and Wall Street bankers are cashing in on record bonuses.

Rogoff: There has never been a better time to get rich. It's quite astonishing how much money people make in the hedge fund business and in the private equity field, and how well-off affluent families really are. Given these contradictions, it comes as no surprise that average Americans have a different perception of the economy than (US President) George W. Bush and his friends. They can play around with statistics as much as they want, but it's clear that we have an unfair distribution of wealth.

Spiegel: That hasn't seemed to bother anyone, as long as the dishwasher-to-millionaire dream still exists.

Rogoff: I tell my children that a man like Bill Gates has a personal fortune of $100 billion. They can't even comprehend that. Then I explain that he has more money than some countries. If we have these extremes, I can't understand why we should get rid of the inheritance tax. It hasn't harmed the economy, and it has evened out the distribution of income across generations.

Spiegel: Billion-dollar tax cuts for the super-rich -- such as eliminating the inheritance tax -- are meant to generate growth for all. Conservatives like to say that a rising tide lifts all boats.

Rogoff: The New Orleans disaster made it painfully clear what happens to people in deep poverty: they don't even have a boat. Even more tax cuts are the wrong approach, as long as we don't even have universal health insurance for children. I think that's outrageous.

Spiegel: Are these injustices the price for lower unemployment and strong growth in the United States?

Rogoff: This unbridled capitalism in the United States can't be sustained socially. It leads to tensions. If we experience another five years like the last five, we will start seeing greater social friction. After all, people aren't looking at how they're doing, but rather at how their neighbors are doing and at their own place in society. These huge inequalities are not a particularly desirable characteristic in our society.

Spiegel: Are Western corporate CEOs driven by globalization, or do they themselves use the situation to their advantage?

Rogoff: We react to market forces and we try to protect jobs -- that's the image many managers have of themselves. They have no idea why people are so furious with them. Look at corporate takeovers where outgoing CEOs get a $50 million settlements and 5,000 workers are let go. That kind of thing happens all the time. On the one hand, it shows that we have a flexible economic system and we permit change. On the other hand, it's completely naïve to think that this doesn't create tensions.

Spiegel: But don't companies and countries that oppose globalization end up hurting themselves?

Rogoff: There are no easy answers. Of course it would be suicidal to nationalize our industries, for example. But those who say the economy is growing and everything's just great are simply unwilling to acknowledge these cracks in the system. Incidentally, this gap is much bigger in China. It's the 21st century along the coastline, but if you travel to the interior, where two-thirds of all Chinese live, you'll experience the 18th century. These are incomprehensible inequities. They have an extremely raw form of capitalism.

Spiegel: According to the 19th century English economist David Ricardo, free trade is good for everyone. According to his theory, the wealthy industrialized nations would simply have to concentrate on becoming even more technologically advanced to make up for their outsourcing losses in certain industries.

Rogoff: Ricardo was never right. Sure, there are more winners than losers, and winners profit to a greater extent than the losers suffer. But the assertion that everyone benefits simultaneously from free trade is simply incorrect.

Spiegel: Protectionism ...

Rogoff: ... is not a solution. We can't turn back the clock. But unbridled capitalism will lead to some very real problems. We will see that ever-increasing deregulation can lose political support among the population in the long term.

Spiegel: If entire industries are shifted to the Far East, how can new jobs be created in the West?

Rogoff: Our high-tech industries are raking in tremendous profits, but for 50-year-old steelworkers or people in the aviation industries, it's difficult or impossible to improve their situations. The problem -- at least in the United States -- is not that people can't find jobs. The problem is that they're no longer finding jobs that provide them with dignity and decent social status. This tremendous downward pull for unskilled laborers has been around for a long time. But now outsourcing is also beginning to affect people in mid-level and higher-level jobs -- those who had felt secure in their positions.

Spiegel: Are you saying that not even a first-class education can protect against competition from the Chinese?

Rogoff: You know, I was a chess pro in my younger days. Back then, the best player in New York could earn a pretty good living. But now the Indians and Chinese have become brilliant chess professionals. They get on a plane and play all over the world. This has led to dramatic pressure on incomes. Nowadays, the best chess player in Argentina can no longer make a living playing chess.

Spiegel: What's Germany's place in the globalized world?

Rogoff: Even if your economy grows a little this year, the trend is pointing downward. You need reforms in the labor market, in the tax system, in the area of corporate governance and in the education sector. Your school system is very good compared with the US, but your universities are not competitive.

Spiegel: You've already written off one of the world's biggest economies?

Rogoff: Please don't misunderstand me. If Berlin would finally enact some decisive reforms, it could surpass the United States in growth for 20 years. Germany has such incredible wealth --with its culture, its education and its highly qualified population. It would just have to flex its muscles a little to achieve growth rates of four to five percent in the coming years and turn itself into an economic miracle, as it did in the 50s and 60s. But that won't happen as long as you have this political paralysis.


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17 avril 2006 1 17 /04 /avril /2006 11:09


GLOBALISIERUNG



"Risse im System"



Harvard-Ökonom Kenneth Rogoff über ungezügelten Kapitalismus, die Gier der Konzernchefs und die Frage, wie den neues Wirtschaftswunder gelingen kann


Rogoff, 53, war Chef-Ökonom des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) und lehrt nach Stationen in Princeton und Berkeley Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der Universität in Harvard. Der frühere Schachprofi und Internationale Großmeister ist ein Verfechter der liberalen IWF-Politik und bezeichnet sich als „Schwarzenegger-Republikaner". In seinen jüngsten Schriften kritisiert er die negativen Folgen der Globalisierung und warnt vor politischen Unruhen, falls Politiker und Manager nicht für eine gerechtere Verteilung des Wohlstands sorgen.


SPIEGEL: Professor Rogoff, die US-Wirtschaft brummt, Präsident Bush jubelt über das hohe Wachstum. Aber die Mehrheit aller Amerikaner glaubt, sie lebe in einer Rezession. Wer hat hier ein Wahrnehmungsproblem?

Rogoff: Ich habe mich auch gefragt, ob die Leute verrückt geworden sind. Aber Tatsache ist: Der Anteil der Löhne am Gesamtwachstum schrumpft.

SPIEGEL: Das heißt: Die meisten Menschen bekommen vom Aufschwung nichts mit und sind zu Recht enttäuscht?

Rogoff: Die arbeitende Bevölkerung hatte in einem Zeitraum von 100 Jahren einen gleichbleibenden Anteil am volkswirtschaftlichen Einkommen. Deshalb waren auch Marx' Thesen völlig falsch, dass im Kapitalismus nur die Kapitalisten profitieren und die Arbeiter ausgebeutet werden. Nichts war mehr von der Wahrheit entfernt. Arbeiter haben in gleicher Weise hinzuverdient, wie die Volkswirtschaften gewachsen sind.

SPIEGEL: Gilt das nicht mehr?

Rogoff: Seit 20 Jahren gibt es in allen reichen Ländern einen auffallenden Niedergang des Faktors Arbeit. Die Reichen werden reicher, aber am unteren Ende kommen die Menschen nicht so schnell voran wie die Kapitalisten.

SPIEGEL: Marx hatte also doch recht?

Rogoff: Bis dahin ist es noch ein weiter Weg. Arbeiter werden nicht ausgebeutet. Aber wenn ihr Anteil am Wachstum nicht größer wird, ist das eine potentielle Ursache sozialer Spannungen weltweit. Der Punkt ist nur: In den USA sind bisher Versuche gescheitert, diesen Trend umzudrehen. Die Boeing-Beschäftigten haben durch ihren Streik kaum etwas erreicht. Die Position der Arbeiter ist geschwächt -in der Luftfahrt und in anderen Industrien.

SPIEGEL: Gleichzeitig kassieren Konzernchefs und Wall-Street-Banker Bonuszahlungen in Rekordhöhe.

Rogoff: Es gab noch nie eine bessere Zeit, um reich zu werden. Es ist schon überaus erstaunlich, wie viel Geld etwa die Leute im Hedgefonds-Business machen oder im Private-Equity-Bereich und wie wunderbar es den wohlhabenden Familien geht. Angesichts solcher Widersprüche ist es kein Wunder, wenn Durchschnittsamerikaner anders über die Wirtschaft denken als George W. Bush und seine Freunde. Die können so lange mit Statistiken spielen, wie sie wollen: Über die ungerechte Verteilung des Wohlstands gibt es keinen Zweifel.

SPIEGEL: Solange es den Vom-Tellerwäscher-zum-Millionär-Traum gibt, hat das bislang kaum jemanden gestört.

Rogoff: Ich sage meinen Kindern, dass ein Mann wie Bill Gates über ein Vermögen von 50 Milliarden Dollar verfügt. Das können sie überhaupt nicht begreifen. Dann erkläre ich ihnen, dass viele Länder auch nicht mehr Geld haben als er. Wenn wir solche Extreme haben, kann ich nicht einsehen, warum wir jetzt auch noch die Erbschaftsteuer abschaffen. Sie hat der Wirtschaft nicht geschadet und über die Generationen hinweg die Einkommensverteilung ausgeglichen.

SPIEGEL: Solche milliardenschweren Steuergeschenke für Superreiche sollen Wachstum für alle erzeugen. Steigendes Wasser hebt alle Boote, lautet ein entsprechender Slogan der Konservativen.

Rogoff: Bei der Katastrophe von New Orleans hat man konkret gesehen, wie es Leuten in bitterer Armut ergeht: Sie haben gar kein Boot. Noch mehr Steuererleichterungen sind der falsche Weg, solange es nicht einmal für Kinder eine Krankenversicherung gibt. Ich finde das ungeheuerlich.

SPIEGEL: Sind diese Ungerechtigkeiten der Preis für niedrige Arbeitslosigkeit und starkes Wachstum in den USA?

Rogoff: Dieser ungezügelte Kapitalismus bei uns wird sozial nicht durchzuhalten sein, das führt zu Spannungen. Wenn wir noch einmal fünf weitere Jahre wie die letzten fünf erleben, werden sich soziale Reibungen verstärken. Die Menschen schauen ja nicht nur auf ihr eigenes Wohlergehen, sondern auch auf ihre Nachbarn, auf ihren Platz in der Gesellschaft. Diese gewaltigen Ungleichheiten sind kein besonders wünschenswerter Wesenszug in unserer Gesellschaft.

SPIEGEL: Sind westliche Konzernchefs Getriebene der Globalisierung, oder nutzen sie die Lage zu ihrem Vorteil aus?

Rogoff: Wir reagieren auf die Kräfte des Marktes, wir versuchen, Jobs zu schützen - das ist das Selbstbild vieler Manager. Sie können überhaupt nicht verstehen, warum die Menschen wütend auf sie sind. Nehmen Sie Firmenübernahmen, bei denen der scheidende Vorstandschef eine Abfindung von 50 Millionen Dollar einstreicht und 5000 Arbeiter entlassen werden. So etwas passiert regelmäßig. Auf der einen Seite zeigt es: Wir haben ein flexibles Wirtschaftssystem, wir erlauben den Wandel. Andererseits ist es natürlich völlig naiv zu glauben, dass dadurch keine Spannungen entstehen.

SPIEGEL: Aber schaden sich Unternehmen und Länder, die sich gegen die Globalisierung stellen, nicht am Ende selbst?

Rogoff: Einfache Antworten gibt es nicht. Natürlich wäre es Selbstmord, beispielsweise unsere Industrien zu verstaatlichen. Wer aber sagt, die Wirtschaft wächst, alles ist wunderbar, der will diese Risse im System einfach nicht zur Kenntnis nehmen. In China ist diese Kluft ja übrigens noch viel gewaltiger. An der Küste herrscht das 21. Jahrhundert, und auf dem Land, wo zwei Drittel der Chinesen wohnen, können Sie noch das 18. Jahrhundert erleben. Das sind unfassbare Ungleichheiten. Die haben einen extrem rohen Kapitalismus.

SPIEGEL: Dem englischen Ökonomen Ricardo zufolge ist Freihandel für alle gut. Die reichen Industriestaaten müssten nach seiner Theorie nur auf der technologischen Leiter nach oben klettern, um ihre Verluste in ausgelagerten Industrien abzugleichen.

Rogoff: Ricardo hatte noch nie recht. Sicher, es gibt mehr Gewinner als Verlierer, und die Gewinner profitieren mehr als die Verlierer einbüßen. Aber dass vom Freihandel alle zur gleichen Zeit profitieren, stimmt einfach nicht

SPIEGEL: Protektionismus...

Rogoff:... ist kein Ausweg, wir können die Uhr nicht zurückdrehen. Aber ein ungezügelter Kapitalismus wird zu sehr realen Problemen führen. Wir werden sehen, dass eine immer weiter reichende Liberalisierung langfristig die politische Unterstützung in der Bevölkerung vertieren kann.

SPIEGEL: Wenn ganze Branchen nach Fernost verlagert werden, wo können dann im Westen überhaupt neue Arbeitsplätze entstehen?

Rogoff: Unsere Hightech-Industrien profitieren ja gewaltig, aber für 50-jährige Stahlarbeiter oder für Leute aus der Luftfahrtindustrie ist es schwierig bis unmöglich, sich zum Besseren zu verändern. Das Problem - jedenfalls in den USA - ist nicht, dass die Leute keinen Job mehr finden. Das Problem ist, dass sie keinen Job mehr bekommen, der ihnen Würde verleiht und einen vernünftigen sozialen Status. Diesen enormen Sog nach unten für ungelernte Arbeiter gibt es ja schon länger. Ab jetzt werden auch die mittleren und höheren Ränge vom Outsourcing betroffen - Menschen, die sich in ihrer Position sehr sicher fühlten.

SPIEGEL: Im Klartext: Nicht einmal erstklassige Bildung schützt vor der Konkurrenz der Chinesen?

Rogoff: Wissen Sie, ich war in jüngeren Jahren Schachprofi. Früher konnten Sie sich als bester Spieler von New York sehr gut Ihren Lebensunterhalt verdienen. Inzwischen sind die Inder und Chinesen brillante Schachprofis geworden. Die steigen ins Flugzeug und spielen überall mit Das hat zu einem dramatischen Druck auf die Einkommen geführt. Wenn Sie der beste Schachspieler Argentiniens sind, können Sie davon heute nicht mehr leben.

SPIEGEL: Welchen Platz hat Deutschland in der globalisierten Welt?

Rogoff: Selbst wenn Ihre Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr ein bisschen wächst - der Trend zeigt abwärts. Sie brauchen Reformen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, im Steuersystem, im Corporate-Governance-Bereich und im Bildungssektor. Ihr Schulsystem ist im Vergleich zu den USA sehr gut, aber Ihre Universitäten sind nicht wettbewerbsfähig.

SPIEGEL: Sie haben eine der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaften schon abgeschrieben?

Rogoff: Verstehen Sie mich nicht falsch. Wenn Berlin endlich entschieden reformieren würde, könnte es die USA im Wachstum für 20 Jahre übertreffen. Deutschland, mit seiner Kultur, seiner Bildung, seinen hochqualifizierten Einwohnern, ist so unglaublich reich. Es müsste seine Muskeln nur ein wenig anspannen, dann könnte es in den nächsten Jahren Wachstumsraten von vier, fünf Prozent (Hmmm?)  erreichen und ein Wirtschaftswunder wie in den fünfziger und sechziger Jahren schaffen. Solange es diese politische Lähmung bei Ihnen gibt, wird es dazu aber nicht kommen.


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